user-avatar
Today is Wednesday
May 22, 2013

November 26, 2011

There is something strange…who you gonna call?

Well here we are late November and despite all the generation of paper currency and QE’s the markets follow ‘double dip’ recession models. We are now talking about ‘worst since World War 1′ figures, and irritated complaints from the ‘powers that be’ about the ‘loss of confidence’ in the markets…..well b####r me!  

Well what could any sane person do let alone the nutters who invest in this charade? The only outcome so far has been a complete exposé of the crass nonsense that is touted as ‘economics’ or ‘monetary policy’ in this global nightmare of ours. The loss of confidence is easy to explain when the heads of governments show that they lost their heads long ago!

However they are not totally to blame, the pusher needs his addict and vice versa, we are all users (consumers), and we are all desperate for our next fix, and as the pusher withdraws supply we go into withdrawal…painful…hideous…intolerable!

Riots and occupy Wall Street have very little credibility when their very existence is a product of the very system they criticise. I don’t like this system myself, but the alternative is not an easy blame! I like to have law and order when it suits me, I like to be able to get a mortgage, I like running water, to be able to shop in a supermarket for my supplies etc. etc.

The only time addicts recover is when they realise they are addicted….if we really want something to change then the first stage is recognising that WE have a problem!!  

 

October 30, 2011

Division Rules…KO!

by Petros — Categories: Money, Politics — Tags: Leave a comment

Ratios, fractional reserve, quantitatative easing, all the buzzwords of people that think if you subdivide anything and multiply by an arbitrary ‘wealth constant’ you end up with a future positive. Because of all this the situation with regard to the world economy slips ever nearer the precipice, whilst the very people who are going to die are consumed in petty squabbles.

At this late hour it is vital that we not divide in our focus to see the real cause of what is happening…we are all to blame, we are all the same, but the threat alas of some corporate scapegoat looms ever closer and the Hitleresque dictator appears to ‘save the day’; the potential for civil unrest, division and then false solution has never been greater. We need to keep our focus and our wits lest we replace this cataclysm with a worst one, one that would be with us for a very long time….

October 23, 2011

Deck the Halls with clouds of folly…

Although it’s only October, the rush to the Gas Chambers has already begun, hyper malls rigged just to squeeze the very life out of you and the planet, in pursuit of a dream of fake glamour!

That came across as maniacal, with an underlying anger that was palpable in its venom. Was it justified? Time will tell. There are several solutions to the Global Economic problem we just have to be damn sure we don’t pick the Final One, or at least somebody doesn’t pick it for you. How do you make a decision, when all around you the Christmas present solutions seduce you with their packaging!

Christmas is a good metaphor for the current situation, it attracts a mass of followers who forgot its real story long ago. They don’t believe in anything other than the blaze of packaging and don’t care the cost, if we can’t afford it we’ll wave our plastic wands like Harry Potter with a loud cry “economicus repairo!” And everything will be fine.

Trouble is that childhood must end and their ain’t no such thing as Santa Claus, the avenger is rousing in his stony sleep, he’s black, liquid and damn near invisible and his name is Oil!

Happy Christmas

October 21, 2011

Economic Turmoil…Ignorance is Bliss!

We do have an energy based economy, but we don’t act as if we do!

Vast consumption of energy on this planet is invisible and at the moment not part of economic transactions, which are based on production costs, plus interest plus profit. They never carry the full burden of production due to the same equation being perpetuated across the board. Also the cost of disposal is not connected to production in a meaningful way, nobody as far as i know is asked to pay in a direct way the cost of eventual disposal of an object they have created. The production cost is individual the disposal cost is global.

The true cost of energy is hidden under a complicated and adjusted ‘ability to pay’ with never a thought to the finite nature of that source, and never asking its true owner for its price.

Our economy is like a giant credit card never paying back what we really owe, ignoring the capital statement and only paying the minimum charge plus the interest of course.

In my opinion this is untenable in the long term.

My first law of energy economics; there is only one currency in this world of ours and that is energy and not the dollar!

My second law of energy economics is that energy is never visible unless it moves. Meaning we never consider it until we have a surfeit or a deficit.

My third law of energy economics is that a surfeit of energy is consumed immediately without thought and a deficit of energy is dealt with by printing more money.

My fourth law is that technical, innovative solutions to energy depletion are in themselves energy consumers, it is very difficult to support a new user for energy when you have no surplus.

My fifth law is that solution is proportional to time available, alas like hydrocarbon energy it is finite and diminishing.

My sixth and perhaps most important law is that peak energy production destroys growth, and no amount of inflation of liquidity or creation of fiat currency has the power to contradict this law.

My seventh law is thx , I believe to Socrates:- You cannot solve a problem with the same mindset that created it in the first place.

My eighth law is ; If it costs a barrel of oil to get a barrel of oil out the ground you are losing no matter how much it costs in paper money.

My ninth law is; The Price of a commodity decreases according to the consumption. So a Car would be astronomically expensive if there was only one customer (like many prototypes:- fantastically expensive in paper money!), but because there are millions of customers it’s price in paper falls.. However the flow of energy consumption is a reverse of this. The more consumption the more expensive in energy requirements, period! That’s why in an era of energy depletion our global economic system is flawed and ultimately doomed.

We are bankrupt in the west! If we were an individual the courts would have corrected us long ago, but in our arrogance we are our own court and we decide when that bankruptcy will occur and on our terms, the true judge is more patient, most of us can’t see him through an interfering haze of greed and our own denial. But He, It, gaia, nature, universe, the laws of physics, is just beginning to make the correction, it’s slow, it’s subtle, but it’s powerful and painful,

AND LAST POINT TO MENTION, THIS CRISIS IS THE FAULT OF ALL OF US! NOT ANY INDIVIDUAL OR SUBSET OF INDIVIDUALS. PLACKARD WAVING PROTESTORS FORGET THAT THEIR ARGUMENTS ARE FACILE IF THEY DON’T TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT THE VERY PLACKARDS THEY BRANDISH ARE A PRODUCT OF THE VERY THING THEY CRITICISE. PEOPLE ARE ANGRY NO ONE CAN DENY THEIR ANGER, BUT IF YOU THINK IT IS SOMEBODY ELSE’S FAULT LOOK LONG AND HARD AT HOW YOU LIVE. IF YOU THINK IT IS THE FAULT OF BANKERS, INVESTORS AND GREEDY ENTRPENEURS THINK WHO GAVE THEM THEIR ABILITY TO DO WHAT THEY DO.? YOU FORGOT THAT THE MEANING OF MORTGAGE IS ‘DEATH GAMBLE’. OUR INDIFFERENCE TO THIS PROBLEM, TOGETHER WITH A STAGGERING LACK OF EDUCATION IN THE REAL DYNAMIC OF OUR EXISTENCE HAS LED IN MY OPINION TO THIS CRISIS. IT’S FAR EASIER TO CRITICISE ANOTHER THAN CRITICISE YOURSELF. THINK ABOUT IT.

October 14, 2011

Fractional Reserve Restaurants

On a brief city break this past week I had time to ponder the current economic uproar. Not having visited a major city for two years, I live on a remote island, it was a time of observation and reflection. As we deal with possibly the greatest economic crisis ever (so far) it is bizarre to see no immediate effect. The malls still have wares, there are people still shopping, the mobile phone usage and ownership still seems on the rise! It’s only when you squint and look a little deeper that the chinks show through.

Outside of the new gleaming shopping malls, stamped from the same mould, relabeled, repackaged sameness you get in such places from one end of the country to the other; things look a little different. The old high streets look neglected, now empty businesses are ‘camp grounds’ for the endless Charity Shops, a perhaps comforting reminder that we are still affluent enough to be able to chuck away our old half worn clothes in the name of false altruism, however the shadow lurks in their rising customer base!

The facade of hotels look tatty, sort of reverse whited sepulchers, all flash and swish on the inside whilst the foundations crumble, a good metaphor for the financial system and a haven of fantasy for those who still believe in economic growth ‘curing’ all our problems! As our gaze wanders over old bronze statues, a product of a bygone era of monuments to energy surplus across the coiffured lawns of the municipal parks, havens of peace now reverberating to the heavy vibes of petrol driven leaf blowers, blithely battling natures hurricane with their pathetic energy guzzling gasps, we notice a few places where people sit and dine…

Ah the restaurant…the better it’s reputation, the more it charges for less! If you wanted a model for the banking system it’s the restaurant! The ability to turn momentary satiation into cash for a fraction of it’s real value. This is what I would like to call the fractional reserve restaurant. It’s amazing, powered by media support that any politician would die for, the restaurant is fed (excuse the pun both ways) by a credit card waving clientele just dying to be hood winked in one salivating moment to go into debt for that illusive moment of culinary delight. Of course we all know where it’s gonna end up but who cares it just looks so yummy right now. Hell what do we care if they save on gas by convincing us that rare is good, boy those vegetables are really crunchy when they aren’t cooked. Never mind swig it down with the inflated wine, you’ll be convinced that the Pope is Jewish! Usually of course there is very little to swig down, thanks to that wonderful media telling everyone to eat less, and yes you could serve cardboard up in a teaspoon of sauce if some TV Chef told you it would burn calories! Sensation over rules common-sense, another little metaphor for our consumer, debt driven economy.

When you go to your bank for your loan or mortgage it’s just like the restaurant, driven by media hype to convince you that all those dreams will soon be yours, by just filling out these forms. Unlike the restaurant however where something however small had to be cooked and physically exist, the dream you buy from the bank has no substantiality whatsoever and it’s gonna cost you, and cost you and cost everybody else.

So in conclusion perhaps the restaurants are not so bad, they may be fractional but there is still is a fraction…unlike the banks!

October 7, 2011

Well…there it is

by Petros — Categories: MoneyLeave a comment

You know I hate to tell everyone that I told you so…but I told you so!!

As the governor of the Bank of England states that we are in the worst financial crisis perhaps in our history; response create money out of nothing to overt catastrophe. Yes you heard it folks it makes sense to print money to maintain growth even when you just admitted you have a crisis of liquidity…tell me governor whats causing the problem?

As the Europeans also try to create bouyancy by going down the debt road to yet more…why can they not get it into their heads that this is a systemic problem rooted in the ‘we aint got it so we’ll borrow it, and if we can’t borrow it…guess what we’ll create it out of thin air!!!’ mentality; do they really think this will solve their problems?

The Europeans are now concerned that Geece will default, their focus? To protect the liquidity of the banks in the rest of Europe, but what of Greece? This ‘remote’ and ‘phoney’ crisis for many is going to get real very quickly and I really dread the possibilities for very real human suffering in the future…

October 4, 2011

The Extent of the problem …cos pictures speak louder than words

by Petros — Categories: MoneyLeave a comment

The Chart says it all….

October 4, 2011

The world in a bag of Crisps

by Petros — Categories: EnergyLeave a comment

Getting up early this morning after finding it difficult to sleep, I grabbed a snack since I was feeling hungry. It is interesting, when you think about it, here in the cozy west, that you can just grab a snack when you are hungry. That’s not to say that everyone can do that in the west but a fair proportion of us can, and it is a miracle of collaboration, ingenuity, and exploitation all rolled into one that makes it possible at all!

As I sat munching my crisps I began to read the packet, and I began to awake from my hypnogogic stupor. I noticed first that since I was eating reduced fat crisps they were not slices of potato but reconstituted potato flakes, and I began to think about how much energy that entailed? How much processing was necessary in that chain of manufacturing that assembled the base product I was munching? The potatoes were grown and harvested and sent to a factory where they were processed into potato flakes, presumably they were then bagged up and transported to the Crisp manufacturer (it’s possible that the Crisp manufacturer does the flaking in house but I doubt it). The next stage is to reform the flakes into flat ‘crisp-like’ objects for cooking and adding of the ‘flavour’; going down the list of ingredients I found other than the potato flakes, starch, sunflower oil, Sea Salt, Soya Lecithin, Dextrose, ‘normal – presumably) salt, Milk, Lactose, Malt Vinegar Extract (implying a extraction process on top of production), Sugar & Potassium Chloride. Now each and every one of these ingredients was manufactured or harvested and distributed to various food manufacturers including our crisp company and then we end up with our product, which is then bagged, packed and distributed to store warehouses and then onward to stores where consumers travel, sometimes many miles to get their groceries.

We pay our money (also the result of a lengthy manufacturing and distribution chain, and also representing a debt by it’s very nature) we take home the bag rip it open and consume it and it’s gone, only to emerge some hours later, where it requires more input of energy and water to deal with as a pollutant we call sewage!

Of course I overlooked the very element that enabled me to have the information necessary to write the article, the package and it’s multicoloured printing, and also its disposal, add that on top of everything else to produce this packet of crisps, and the energy deficit is much much larger than we normally take notice of.

It is said that it takes 10kcal of hydrocarbon energy to produce 1kcal of food not counting distribution, processing, packaging, waste disposal! My packet of crisps contained according to the packet 147kcal so base cost before the manufacturing, packaging and disposal chain 1470kcal now let’s arbitrarily add a value e for energy cost factor as a multiple of the original energy requirement in the chain so final energy cost equals e x 1470 in hydrocarbon energy. It would seem that a total energy factor e of 3 would not be excessive, but we are in uncharted territory as very few consider these factors, so just to pay devils advocate let’s say it’s 2. So 2 x 1470 = 2940 kcal now equate that to money (don’t forget to factor in the manufacture, disposal, representational debt, that that adds) we may say that a kcal may be worth say 1p so this packet of crisps perhaps should cost 2940p + the Money factor (nobody thinks of that anyway so I’ll ignore it) my bag of crisps costs £29.40!!

A facile exercise? Well maybe, but these are the sorts of things we should think about. Just try to get a monetary value on that kcal which will equal the 50p my Crisps cost me. Now you begin to understand how sections of the third world starve, there production overheads are far lower, they produce their food at source, harvest and then consume it, even their sewage disposal (to their detriment ) requirements are far lower than ours, they have no choice, we steal energy from them!

This will bring me to the preposterous and hypocritical notion of charitable donation in the West. All this does is consume more of the finite available energy in the system so it exacerbates the problem. Consume less energy there is more available for others period! Also remember the last thing you want to be doing is splashing around this negative wealth called money, it has a crippling debt attached to it as well as an energy overhead, it’s like giving tobacco to a child!

The upshot of all this can be summed up in two maxims:-

1…There is only one currency in the world and that’s energy

2…Money is an illusion of wealth, it is worse than that it carries and represents a burden of usury, energy deficit, pollution and starvation.

I’ll close now…as I throw my crisp bag away!!!

October 3, 2011

Greece…Grease…slip sliding away.

by Petros — Categories: Money, PoliticsLeave a comment

As the markets tremble at the ‘shock horror’ of Greek default and the greed ridden speculators burp their acerbic phlegm into the illusory world of global economics causing the corrosion of any REAL wealth, perhaps it is time to consider the real cost. As people are confined into ‘austerity concentration camps’ across the world the rumbles of popular revolt are beginning to be heard. Up until now the hound Garmr has been muzzled by political obfuscation; now he begins to produce deep howls in front of the cave of Gnipahellir signifying the onset of a Ragnarok which if you are a ‘conspiracy theorist’ the worlds governments welcome and if not they tremble with their one good eye like some aged Wotan confused and befuddled by the Loki of Economic theories and master of global fractional reserve banking!

Sorry for the excursion into Norse mythology, but my point is that ‘fixit’ strategies have as much mythological content as the great Sagas. The real problems are not being addressed and so the few condemn the many to pain and suffering as we repeat the old ways over and over again as if we are incapable of learning.

We cling to our illusions with no less validity than to the Totems of old and the ‘rulers’ manipulate and rule the Totems so that any good that was in them is corroded out of existence by the tentacles of corrosive greed.

Most of us today are similar to the tragic individuals who paid their fares to the death camps in the holocaust, they even tipped the guards as they were led away to be murdered. This is where we are right now, some are beginning to hear the hound…..

…but the rest of us?

October 2, 2011

Crisis…Or wakeup call

by Petros — Categories: Money1 Comment

As we await a new week of financial insecurity and shakeup, the ‘rocky road’ begins to establish itself. If you’ve never heard of ‘rocky road’ before then you are probably unfamiliar with the term ‘peak oil’. Peak oil is a prediction that all oil fields in the world follow a bell curve of production growth, it predicts that just as every individual field climbs to a peak and then declines so does the worlds supply. The upshot of this is that when you reach ‘peak’ in global production you say goodbye to cheap oil based energy and that no matter how much you spend in effort or money you will never achieve more oil than you have at peak. Why is this so important? After all we are not running out of oil!

The short answer is that it would not be a problem if the world as a whole, based it’s population, services and wealth calculations on energy availability, but alas it does not. We have a global debt based economy that necessitates a growth paradigm to enable it to function. Now despite what you may hear from the powers that be that the solution is to stimulate the economy via liquidity; fundamentally this is a catastrophic failure of awareness of what is really happening. Human kind can print money on demand; it can and does value debt! This is the ‘non sense’ of the global economic system. It cannot manufacture Oil, it cannot print kilowatt hours!

Through our lack of awareness of the underlying cause of this crisis which will be a bumpy road or ‘rocky road’ of boom and bust, with the overall curve downward; any attempt to ‘cure’ this current crisis by increased liquidity will only deepen the ruts to global collapse.

We can never see the ‘peak’ in oil production directly, it happens only in a rear view mirror, in my view we probably peaked around 2006/7 now we may be getting the first real systemic tremors….there are more to come.

If you are confident about a ‘technological’ solution to the energy problems just think about this.

In a time of energy peak supply you have no surplus energy to build or supply your new idea whatever it may be. For instance it takes about 70 barrels of oil to make a car, so if you wanted to replace all the cars in the world with a new type even if it’s running cost was zero you still need n x 70 barrels of oil surplus to start manufacture, where n is the number of cars in the world. Where are you going to get this from at a time of oil production peak? This is the fallacy of our way of thinking about energy we don’t do the whole equation, indeed the example I gave did not take into account the energy cost to remove and process the old cars let alone infrastructure changes!

The bottom line is, if it costs a barrel of oil to get a barrel of oil out the ground you can sling all the paper money you like at it and it ain’t gonna work!

Think about it…

© 2013 The Outside Looking Back All rights reserved - Wallow theme v0.46.4 by ([][]) TwoBeers - Powered by WordPress - Have fun!